Why online Exit polls fail?
The Exit Poll Results sound hyperbolic to many as it looks too far from realities even to the expectations of the winning parties. It's a fact that exit polls were proved wrong in all cases where no apprent anti ncumbency prevailed. Irrespective of accuracy, here are the reasons:
1. Hoax Barging :- Pro party workers are likely to massively poll for a particular party or have done reboot polls. This is very probable in a party having cadre structure. If urban capture and youth dominance aswell happened (due to online acces) in the polls, results were certainty affected and favored Modi.
2. Non-response bias: - Sample may consists of more from the supporters of failing candidate than from from winning candidate.
3. Social -desirability bias :- People would have lied pollsters as they went with a populist trend eventhough not voted. Being Modi was projected as the single alternative for India and BJP successfully managed to market the theme with lots of emotional and nationalistic contents surpassing development in the absence of a unified opposition, there is no wonder to see Modi as the next PM. All credits to Amit Shah.
This time exit polls are likely to go wrong as all the three reasons potentially would have affected the polls.
The Exit Poll Results sound hyperbolic to many as it looks too far from realities even to the expectations of the winning parties. It's a fact that exit polls were proved wrong in all cases where no apprent anti ncumbency prevailed. Irrespective of accuracy, here are the reasons:
1. Hoax Barging :- Pro party workers are likely to massively poll for a particular party or have done reboot polls. This is very probable in a party having cadre structure. If urban capture and youth dominance aswell happened (due to online acces) in the polls, results were certainty affected and favored Modi.
2. Non-response bias: - Sample may consists of more from the supporters of failing candidate than from from winning candidate.
3. Social -desirability bias :- People would have lied pollsters as they went with a populist trend eventhough not voted. Being Modi was projected as the single alternative for India and BJP successfully managed to market the theme with lots of emotional and nationalistic contents surpassing development in the absence of a unified opposition, there is no wonder to see Modi as the next PM. All credits to Amit Shah.
This time exit polls are likely to go wrong as all the three reasons potentially would have affected the polls.
No comments:
Post a Comment